At the Deadline

The trade deadline is almost upon us and the Mariners might be in the most peculiar position of all. Buy or sell? Short term or long term? The magnitude of this decision is huge and will have a decisive role in determining the future of our franchise for the next several years. The players most notably on the block are Jarrod Washburn and Erik Bedard. Pitching, pitching, pitching, everyone wants pitching. In our age of offense it should come as no surprise. The Mariners have the best ERA in the American League, therefore so many teams in contention looking for that arm to put them over the top are eyeing our roster with intrigue. For our general manager, the decision must be made as to whether or not we are contenders this year.
It has to be understood that we are not just chasing one team, we are chasing two. Chasing down the Angels may prove too difficult by itself but we also have the Rangers to contend with. I don’t believe the Rangers are in this for the long haul. The sad story for that franchise always seems to be the pitching, and I don’t see that changing this year. It has almost come to a point with the Rangers where they have to prove that pitching is not a problem for them by making the playoffs before they will get the benefit of the doubt. Even if we do only concern ourselves with the Angels, right now we are staring at a five and half game deficit in late July. If the Angels play at the percentage they are now and go 41-27 through the end of the season, the Mariners would have to win at about a .700 clip to have a chance at catching the Angels, which seems to be our only way into the playoffs since we are staring up at four teams in the Wild Card. As much as I love the way we are playing right now, objectively speaking one has to concede that it is a difficult task for any team to make up that kind of ground on a team as good as the Halos. They show no sign of letting up as they are injury ridden right now and still somehow playing their best baseball of the season. If we’re looking to mortgage our future (again, look at Adam Jones and Shin-Soo Choo) for a chance to win this year, it doesn’t seem likely. For teams like the Phillies and Dodgers, mortgaging prospects makes sense. For the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, White Sox, it makes sense. For us, right now as much as I hate to say it, we are too far out chasing down a team that is too good.
I don’t think I’m understating this when I say that the Angels have a revolutionary offense. With a good week, they could overtake the Yankees as the best offense in baseball. Yet, they are in the middle of the pack in homeruns and doubles. They lead the league in team batting and are second (behind the Rays) in stolen bases. Mike Scoscia and the Angels have redefined how to score without power in an age of offense. They get hits. They draw walks. They run, run, run. First to third. Straight steal. Hit and run. The Angels are aggressive and show all of baseball that speed causes problems. They will single a team to death, and they don’t need to string three hits in an inning together to score a run because of their speed and aggressiveness. This is a model for all teams around baseball. Because I don’t think the Mariners have a very good chance to catch the Angels even with a good bat (asking a team to win at a .700 clip is simply too much), I think the smart thing to do is sell to make sure we are getting something for our great arms. Jarrod Washburn is commanding the highest price he has ever commanded at this point. He is fantastic. I think it is smart to offload him first. I hope we can resign Bedard. Even though the media has mentioned several times how the Bedard trade has been terrible for Seattle (good point) it still has a chance to save itself. He just needs to get healthy. When he pitches, he is quality, even though he does not go as deep as we would like. I really believe that if Bedard gets healthy for a full season, he can be a devastating punch with Felix in the rotation. I hope we can hang on to Bedard, but only if we can resign him. It makes no sense to hang on to him for the rest of this year or next, because then we really have lost it all in the trade with the Orioles if he does not resign. I hate to say it because are playing so well right now and I hope we will continue to play well, but we have to look to sell if we want to win in a couple years, otherwise we could get caught in a never-ending cycle of losing seasons.
I would like to take a moment to speak about the All Star Game. I have always loved the ASG and I think the recent streak by the American League has made it even more fascinating. Yet still the debate looms about whether the ASG should determine home field advantage in the World Series. I think it is a good debate to have because it is a valid question. I understand why Bud Selig instituted the rule after the 2002 embarrassment (ties are for soccer, not baseball), but now that we are sufficiently removed from that I think everyone is clamoring to have us look at this critically. Is something as important as being able to open and close the World Series on your own soil to be decided by an “exhibition” game? While I do like it because it adds a little extra flare to the ASG, I agree that it is simply not appropriate. I would hope that the exhibition game would “mean something” to the players simply for the sake of its history. It’s the All Star Game, and there’s no guarantee of ever getting back to it. I think at this level of the game, every player as an innate desire to win every game, from spring training to the postseason, exhibition or non. I don’t think that the players themselves need that boost. I think it is a ratings plug. Which is fine. There’s nothing wrong with wanting more people to watch the game. But maybe throwing the World Series into the mix is too much. So it seems that the question that comes up is, how should home field advantage for the World Series be decided? Some say it should be the team with the best record. I think that’s fine. That essentially the way the NBA does it from what I understand, and it seems to work for them. Previously, we used to alternate years to determine which league had the advantage. Also fine. I think that anything which does not place the determining factor on the fates of a single day of baseball is alright. Head to head record in interleague play? Sure, I think that’s the most compelling of them all. The only problem with that being that you still have last place teams deciding the fate of contending teams, which some have a problem with. I don’t. I don’t lay awake at night thinking about the injustice of the ASG deciding home field advantage, but I do side with the majority in the idea that it should not decide home field advantage. Home field is too important.
The AL East is quite interesting in the way it is developing. Throughout this season, I have always picked the Yankees to come out of that division, simply because I think there are less question marks around their team and I think that their offense and starting pitching is better than the Sox who probably, no, definitely, have a bullpen advantage. Right on cue, the Yankees are surging and the Sox are falling. The Sox offense is steadily declining. Pedroia’s numbers are down. Their team OPS has fallen each month in the season as Peter Gammons repeatedly points out. The Sox are in a tailspin and the balance of power in the AL East has visibly changed in the past couple weeks. I expect this to continue. With Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira hitting in the middle of the lineup and Sabbathia, Burnett and Chamberlain in the rotation, it is simply too powerful. I expect the Yankees to return to the postseason. After that, who knows? Hope for their sake that they don’t run into the Halos.
The Dodgers are definitively the team of the National League. However, Roy Halladay is looming, and many National League teams no doubt want him, at least the Phillies and the Cardinals. Whoever lands Halladay I think becomes the team of the National League. The Phillies and the Cardinals do not trail the Dodgers by that much and Halladay could put them over the top. If I am a Dodger fan, I am lying awake at night at the idea of the Phillies or Cardinals getting the ace. It could certainly spell disaster in a short series to have to face Halladay twice, especially if Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are right behind him. The Phillies perhaps need him the worst, who are so struggling with their starting rotation that they found Pedro Martinez in the Dominican Republic and paid him to pitch the rest of the season with them. I foresee disaster with the Martinez signing. I can’t see how a pitcher whose last few years with the Mets were mediocre at best can possibly offer the Phillies anything. Although Happ has emerged to carry part of that pitching staff, I don’t know if Moyer or Joe Blanton (if he’s still around) are going to be good enough for any team. I certainly hope Cole Hamels gets into shape. Fast.
Finally, Albert Pujols, the hitter of our generation is chasing what would the crowning jewel of his career and cement his legendary status. The Triple Crown. Last done by Carl Yastrzemski over 40 years ago, the Triple Crown reflects the ultimate in offensive dominance over a single season. So rare from an offensive perspective that the thought of it excites fans in the first half of the season, a triple crown is truly an amazing feat. Even the great hitters of all time fell short in one department or another. Too much power to hit for a great average, or not enough thump to carry the league lead in homeruns or RBI. I would love to see Pujols put that final feather in his cap, since he seems to have done almost everything conceivable already, even winning a World Series. I simply don’t think it’s going to happen. As much as everyone wants it to, I think he trails by too many points in the average. To make up twenty point of average over Hanley Ramirez in two months would be quite a feat. Is Pujols capable of it? I won’t put myself into the trap of saying that that man is not capable of something when it comes to hitting a baseball, but I think it is too much to expect it out of someone. Also, not getting pitched to late in the season will certainly damage his ability to drive in runs if Prince Fielder starts to threaten his lead. Another year perhaps. This year? I doubt it.