2010

A new day is upon us. Fresh expectations. For about 24 teams, high hopes and dreams. For the other 6, well....



It is a fitting time to gain some perspective on what looks good, not good, and possibly disastrous for the coming season. First, however, what are the gurus saying about the Mariners this year? If you were like me, you were looking at the Cliff Lee trade, wondering how much of an impact that is going to have on the M's this year. Some at ESPN and MLB were picking the Mariners as the new favorites to win the AL West this year. One article on ESPN was specially devoted to explaining why the Mariners could win the American League pennant. However, now that the season is finally upon us, newer voices are making some curious selections regarding the future AL West champions. Despite spending much of the offseason bleeding, Angels still remain the pick of about a half dozen writers that I researched at ESPN, FOX and MLB Network. The other half, interestingly enough, picked the Athletics. What is most curious though, is that all the writers picked the Mariners and Rangers to take second and third in the division (interchangeably), essentially meaning that the A's and Halos, if they were not picked to win the division, were picked to finish in last. I have never seen anything quite like it before, such disagreement about who holds the strength in the division and who does not. Nobody I have read recently picked the Mariners or the Rangers to win the division.



I also can not decide on where I stand regarding the Halos strength this year. I think their lineup is better than many give credit for. They should score runs this year. But will the Mariners?



After making the biggest improvement in baseball last year, the prevalent question regarding the Mariners is the same as it has been for years and years...who is going to hit? It is almost enough to make me wonder if any Mariners team will ever find the strength to hit at Safeco. The Mariners have made the bottom of the American League is scoring output their personal home since 2004, leaving it only once in 2007 when they finished seventh in the league in runs. The Mariners have also lost their only potent offensive threat in Russell Branyan in the offseason, making concerns in pushing runners to home even more tangible. But there is hope...



If anyone wrote the book on how to win without scoring a lot of runs, it was the Angels. How do they manage to score enough? They run. A lot. Not only straight stealing, but moving first to third, hitting and running, drawing walks. The Mariners can certainly run this year, but more important to their success will be offensive production from players we are not currently expecting to have a breakout year. If the Mariners are going to score enough to back up their sometimes brilliant pitching, Ichiro and Figgins need to fly with reckless abandon at the top of the order. Huge contributions need to come from Milton Bradley, who can certainly hit if he can stay calm, Franklin Gutierrez who emerged last year and needs to continue to develop, Jose Lopez who needs to hit like we've been waiting for him to hit for a few years, and Kotchman needs to have an unexpectedly good season to carry some of the load. If Griffey can manage fifteen home runs and sixty RBIs, there is reason to hope. If only one or two of these things does not happen, it will be same sad song until the Mariners can produce (and not get rid of) a great bat.



On the pitching side, many are lamenting the back end of the Mariners rotation. I find reason for hope here as well. The back end of most rotations is not strong, that is why it is the back end of the rotation and not the front end. However, as I always maintain, I would rather have a young, unpredictable rotation than an old, predictably mediocre rotation. Ian Snell and Rowland-Smith have a ton of talent that can emerge. Doug Fister looked great last year. Luke French is only 24 years old. So much room for growth could mean good times again. Then again, it may all fall flat. But the possibility remains. With Erik Bedard coming back in mid-season, the best case scenario finds and incredibly top three with two rising stars trailing behind them. The worst case scenario finds Cliff Lee rarely healthy and lack-luster when he is so, Felix taking a step back from becoming one of the dominant forces in baseball, and three other spots in the rotation that never materialize. With yet another inconsistent (if not bad) offensive season likely, this can easily spell disaster. This is what people are thinking about when they pick the Mariners to finish third in the division. However, it does not have to be this way. The M's might very well sport the best defense in the American league. Jack Wilson needs to take away all the runs he is not going to produce in turning double plays that would not normally be turned in order to help our team win, otherwise Wilson is just a warm body.



I can't really remember the last time I considered the bullpen to be an issue for the M's. I was surprised to learn that we actually blew about 25 saves last year, which was amazing to me considering the talent we have in the 'pen. I will be generous and chalk it up to growing pains. I look for the ERA to be stellar as usual, and the blown saves to go down with Aardsma taking the reigns as the full time, unquestioned closer.



Finally, with all the predictions being made, especially in an unusually variable AL West this year, the reality is that all of these predictions are made with all things being equal among all clubs, which they never are. They do not factor in injuries, which you can never predict, overperfomances by some players and underperformances by others, which you can also never predict. I have outlined reasons to believe that the Mariners CAN function offensively this year, especially with many guys who are capable .300 hitters (Ichiro, Figgins, Bradley, Gutierrez, and Lopez) and so much speed to press defenses. If the Mariners are in it at the break, expect Jack Z to look for a bat. A big one. That could push the Mariners into the playoffs with an amazing three top set of starters. That is why some dare to pick the Mariners to come out of the American League. Or, the offense will struggle like it always seems to and Lee's health issues will only be one of the many disappointments in a long summer...but it is spring, and April is a time for hope.