What makes Hernandez especially valuable, maybe the most valuable player in major league baseball, is that he is an established Cy Young Award winner who is just entering the prime of his career. Unlike Albert Pujols, whose contract talk seems to dominate the market discussion, Felix's best years are all in front of him, maybe minus one. Given that, all the talk (predictably) from camp Mariners is that Felix isn't going anywhere, and Z plans to hold on to him. For his part, Felix is saying all the right things (which if we hold on to him for four years and plan to resign him might ring as hollow as the dreaded vote of confidence by the GM for a struggling manager).
Amidst the talking heads of baseball there is a rift over whether or not the Mariners should keep the King or trade while his value is sky high. Baseball Tonight recently held this discussion which split the panel. Only going by what I read and hear, my guess is that most of the fan base would be opposed to trading Felix. It is just too much fun to have such a player growing up and reaching Hall of Fame potential right in front of us. Why do we want to get rid of that? Where would we be without Felix?
This perspective offers a doomsday scenario wherein the M's are a franchise totally without hope or direction with 100 losses being the standard quota for years to come. Alternatively, the other scenario suggests that the Mariners will be able to resurrect their franchise in time to make use of Felix for a World Series run. Or the Mariners will be able to succeed in the great risk of signing Felix before his contract runs out (a scenario that the organization is surely not to want to chance, if we are not there in three years the odds of us trading Felix skyrocket).
Believe me, I want to see Felix pitch is Seattle for his whole career. I love to watch him dominate, to overpower. But I don't love that more than I love winning. Felix is not the center of my baseball perspective. Winning is. And if I am Jack Z, all I am thinking about is how I can put wins up in the standings and warm bodies in the seats. That's why, as hard as it is for me, I vote to be open to trading Felix Hernandez.
The reality is that the Mariners have the most sought after pitcher in baseball, and the package deal that some clubs would be willing to give would be, to say the least, substantial. We would be able to help replenish our farm system and get at least one or two major league ready players. The Mariners are too far away from being a contending club to think about winning in the near future. If we hang on to Felix, at best we would be able to get one playoff run out of him before his contract runs out if we are able to rebuild extremely fast (unlikely). But if we have not resigned him before his last year, he would probably be traded before that last year expired anyway.
So why not wait until then to trade him? I consider that to be too much of a risk. Felix has probably maxed his value right now. Waiting another few years could open him up to injury. Or a fluke year that hurts his numbers. Either way, I'm tired of losing now. And we need to take dramatic steps to bring winning baseball back to Seattle. That includes the acquisition of several key components that will pay off in the future. Lose one potential hall of fame pitcher, get a couple all stars and key role players in return. That is the gamble.
There is definitely a risk. But the risk is two-edged. If we keep Felix, we are risking be able to resign him to a long term deal. Sure he says all the right things now, makes all the right moves, lives in the community, but I don't know the guy, and neither do you. Who knows what he would want to do? We could be the team that let Felix go and got nothing in return (ARod). But if you are the GM to trade him then your entire career as GM will constantly be measured by the success or failure of that trade. You will either be the guy who wasted Hernandez and got junk in return, or the guy who resurrected our franchise with the gutsiest trade in recent memory. With a player as valuable as Felix, there is no avenue without risk.
If we are going to trade him, naturally preference should be given to National League teams. Certainly we should not trade him to the American League West, but outside of that anything goes (even the Yankees, as much as I hate it they would probably be able to give us some of the best trade value with Jesus Montero).
Rebuilding without sacrifice takes a lot of time. However, by sacrificing a key piece for several pieces will allow us to rebuild faster and win sooner. Winning puts more warm bodies in the seats than Felix ever will pitching once a week. We don't have to trade him immediately, but I think we should trade him eventually. The potential of that value is simply too much to let it all rest in one player, especially when we are only getting Felix 13 wins a year anyway.
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