Fate was against me today. It had to be on this day that my week-long free preview of MLB Extra Innings On Demand ran out, essentially meaning I could no longer watch any out of market games on cable anymore. I realized this today as I tried to watch the Rays play the White Sox. I turned to the channel. Blackness. Of course, I didn't realize at the time how consequential that game would be for the history of baseball, but then again nobody did. And that's what remains beautiful about the sport that has encountered such difficulty in maintaining a good public image these last few years. Baseball is true spontaneity. As I always remind myself (and others), each game is born anew, separate from every other game that has ever existed or will ever exist in the history of baseball. It exists within itself and can hold its own spectacular beauty. But I didn't think about that today as I watched the TV tell me to call Comcast if I wanted to watch this channel. Maybe I should have.Around baseball these last few weeks we have had several close calls, both with perfect games and no-hitters. One that particularly stands out was Jonathan Sanchez's no-hitter a couple weeks ago. The rare no-hitter without a walk, but not a perfect game because of an error by the San Francisco third baseman with one out in the eighth inning. No perfection. No hitters and perfect games have been taken into the seventh and eighth this year, but have come up dry (other than Sanchez's performance). With all the close calls with perfect games, two in the last couple weeks, I had a premonition that something could strike soon. Not that it would necessarily, but one can only have so many close calls without feeling like these are a couple thunderclaps before the brilliant lightning strike. A perfect game is that lightning strike, not a no-hitter (which there have been over a hundred of going back to 1876). No hitters are wonderful. Perfect games are legendary. The rarest of occurrences.For me, there is no feat in baseball so rare and spectacular as the perfect game. None. Significantly different from its little sister, the no-hitter, the perfect game remains the only feat in baseball whose title bears the true majesty of the accomplishment. Perfection. One could not possibly do any better. There is simply no other equivalent in the game. The only thing that I can think of which might be comparable is the four-homerun game. Equally as rare (actually rarer, there have been 15 four-homerun games, 18 perfect games dating back to 19th century baseball), the four-homerun game is similar to the offensive "perfect game" if there is is such a thing. However, I can only speak for myself when I say that it simply doesn't carry as much meaning as the perfect game. I can't really give a definitive reason why. Perhaps that a four-homerun game simply does not feel "perfect". In fact, most aren't in a sense. Out of the 15 four homerun games in Major League history, only one player, Carlos Delgado, homered in all four of his plate appearances (Rocky Colavito had four homeruns in four official at bats, but managed to score five runs according to the box score, indicating that he had at least five plate appearances) thus attaining a true measure of "perfection". Yet still, perhaps it is because we are living in the age of offense, offensive achievements don't seem to carry as much weight for me as brilliant pitching. The first recorded perfect game in Major League history was by Lee Richmond on June 12, 1880 according to mlb.com. Amazingly, the next one occurred only five days later by Monte Ward. After Ward's perfect game, the National League had to wait 84 years before perfection struck again when Jim Bunning didn't allow a Met to reach base on June 21, 1964. While the American League had four perfect games during that span, perfection remained (and still remains) uniquely rare. There were no perfect games in baseball between 1909 and 1921, and then not another one until Larsen's ultimate pitching performance in Game 6 of the 1956 World Series against the Dodgers, the only time a perfect game has ever been thrown in the postseason. While we have seen nine perfect games since 1981, Buehrle's perfect game today ended a ten year drought wherein the American League did not see perfection. Going back to the 19th century, there have been five decades that have elapsed where no perfect game was pitched in either league (1890's, 1910's, 1930's, 1940's, and the 1970's). In the 90's we were fortunate enough to see perfection four times (Martinez, Rogers, Wells, and Cone, the most of any decade (all perfect game dates came from mlb.com). Truly, a performance one never forgets. It did not surprise me that it was Mark Buehrle who gave us what will likely be the last perfect game of our decade. Although he is not a power-strikeout pitcher, I've always regarded Buehrle's ability to mow down a lineup as one of the best in baseball. He is definitely the quickest and may be the most efficient pitcher I've ever seen. Buehrle controls the pace, and every time I watch him pitch it always seems as if he is in command. If the lineup does not beat him early, their prospects get dimmer as the game wears on. He controls the flow, not the hitters. He rarely gets himself into trouble and pitches to contact. His soft stuff can stifle an aggressive lineup (like the Rays) and get hitters to jump at pitches. Alexei Ramirez was quite busy at shortstop fielding the two hoppers from all the right handed hitters who "rolled over" on Buehrle's changeup. Buehrle was the man. Twenty-seven up. Twenty-seven down. Eighty-eight pitches. I feel so thankful to be able to have seen it. Although only a few can lay claim to have witnessed it in person, while a few more can say to have seen in on TV, in a sense we all saw it, those who even so much as witnessed the highlights and reflected on how truly special it was. The 34 year period between Charlie Robertson's perfect game and Don Larsen's epic performance in which no perfect games were found anywhere reminds me of how special it is, and that we are not entitled to see it and may not see it again for a long time. That is why each perfect game must be cherished. They are, in a way, freaks of nature. Baseball isn't supposed to be perfect. But then again, the game has a way of showing us all how little we know about it. We erroneously think that we are the game, and that the game is flawed because we are flawed. We think it tarnishes the game when we "cheat" by using performance enhancing substances. But that is the error in our thinking. The game exists outside of us. We are only imperfect players playing a perfect game. Today was special, and yet, none of us had any idea of it when we woke up this morning, when they showed up to the ballpark, when they checked in to see the early Thursday results. No idea. But therein lies the greatness of the game. You never know what you're gonna see.
(Written on 7/23/09)
Friday, July 24, 2009
At the Deadline
The trade deadline is almost upon us and the Mariners might be in the most peculiar position of all. Buy or sell? Short term or long term? The magnitude of this decision is huge and will have a decisive role in determining the future of our franchise for the next several years. The players most notably on the block are Jarrod Washburn and Erik Bedard. Pitching, pitching, pitching, everyone wants pitching. In our age of offense it should come as no surprise. The Mariners have the best ERA in the American League, therefore so many teams in contention looking for that arm to put them over the top are eyeing our roster with intrigue. For our general manager, the decision must be made as to whether or not we are contenders this year.
It has to be understood that we are not just chasing one team, we are chasing two. Chasing down the Angels may prove too difficult by itself but we also have the Rangers to contend with. I don’t believe the Rangers are in this for the long haul. The sad story for that franchise always seems to be the pitching, and I don’t see that changing this year. It has almost come to a point with the Rangers where they have to prove that pitching is not a problem for them by making the playoffs before they will get the benefit of the doubt. Even if we do only concern ourselves with the Angels, right now we are staring at a five and half game deficit in late July. If the Angels play at the percentage they are now and go 41-27 through the end of the season, the Mariners would have to win at about a .700 clip to have a chance at catching the Angels, which seems to be our only way into the playoffs since we are staring up at four teams in the Wild Card. As much as I love the way we are playing right now, objectively speaking one has to concede that it is a difficult task for any team to make up that kind of ground on a team as good as the Halos. They show no sign of letting up as they are injury ridden right now and still somehow playing their best baseball of the season. If we’re looking to mortgage our future (again, look at Adam Jones and Shin-Soo Choo) for a chance to win this year, it doesn’t seem likely. For teams like the Phillies and Dodgers, mortgaging prospects makes sense. For the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, White Sox, it makes sense. For us, right now as much as I hate to say it, we are too far out chasing down a team that is too good.
I don’t think I’m understating this when I say that the Angels have a revolutionary offense. With a good week, they could overtake the Yankees as the best offense in baseball. Yet, they are in the middle of the pack in homeruns and doubles. They lead the league in team batting and are second (behind the Rays) in stolen bases. Mike Scoscia and the Angels have redefined how to score without power in an age of offense. They get hits. They draw walks. They run, run, run. First to third. Straight steal. Hit and run. The Angels are aggressive and show all of baseball that speed causes problems. They will single a team to death, and they don’t need to string three hits in an inning together to score a run because of their speed and aggressiveness. This is a model for all teams around baseball. Because I don’t think the Mariners have a very good chance to catch the Angels even with a good bat (asking a team to win at a .700 clip is simply too much), I think the smart thing to do is sell to make sure we are getting something for our great arms. Jarrod Washburn is commanding the highest price he has ever commanded at this point. He is fantastic. I think it is smart to offload him first. I hope we can resign Bedard. Even though the media has mentioned several times how the Bedard trade has been terrible for Seattle (good point) it still has a chance to save itself. He just needs to get healthy. When he pitches, he is quality, even though he does not go as deep as we would like. I really believe that if Bedard gets healthy for a full season, he can be a devastating punch with Felix in the rotation. I hope we can hang on to Bedard, but only if we can resign him. It makes no sense to hang on to him for the rest of this year or next, because then we really have lost it all in the trade with the Orioles if he does not resign. I hate to say it because are playing so well right now and I hope we will continue to play well, but we have to look to sell if we want to win in a couple years, otherwise we could get caught in a never-ending cycle of losing seasons.
I would like to take a moment to speak about the All Star Game. I have always loved the ASG and I think the recent streak by the American League has made it even more fascinating. Yet still the debate looms about whether the ASG should determine home field advantage in the World Series. I think it is a good debate to have because it is a valid question. I understand why Bud Selig instituted the rule after the 2002 embarrassment (ties are for soccer, not baseball), but now that we are sufficiently removed from that I think everyone is clamoring to have us look at this critically. Is something as important as being able to open and close the World Series on your own soil to be decided by an “exhibition” game? While I do like it because it adds a little extra flare to the ASG, I agree that it is simply not appropriate. I would hope that the exhibition game would “mean something” to the players simply for the sake of its history. It’s the All Star Game, and there’s no guarantee of ever getting back to it. I think at this level of the game, every player as an innate desire to win every game, from spring training to the postseason, exhibition or non. I don’t think that the players themselves need that boost. I think it is a ratings plug. Which is fine. There’s nothing wrong with wanting more people to watch the game. But maybe throwing the World Series into the mix is too much. So it seems that the question that comes up is, how should home field advantage for the World Series be decided? Some say it should be the team with the best record. I think that’s fine. That essentially the way the NBA does it from what I understand, and it seems to work for them. Previously, we used to alternate years to determine which league had the advantage. Also fine. I think that anything which does not place the determining factor on the fates of a single day of baseball is alright. Head to head record in interleague play? Sure, I think that’s the most compelling of them all. The only problem with that being that you still have last place teams deciding the fate of contending teams, which some have a problem with. I don’t. I don’t lay awake at night thinking about the injustice of the ASG deciding home field advantage, but I do side with the majority in the idea that it should not decide home field advantage. Home field is too important.
The AL East is quite interesting in the way it is developing. Throughout this season, I have always picked the Yankees to come out of that division, simply because I think there are less question marks around their team and I think that their offense and starting pitching is better than the Sox who probably, no, definitely, have a bullpen advantage. Right on cue, the Yankees are surging and the Sox are falling. The Sox offense is steadily declining. Pedroia’s numbers are down. Their team OPS has fallen each month in the season as Peter Gammons repeatedly points out. The Sox are in a tailspin and the balance of power in the AL East has visibly changed in the past couple weeks. I expect this to continue. With Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira hitting in the middle of the lineup and Sabbathia, Burnett and Chamberlain in the rotation, it is simply too powerful. I expect the Yankees to return to the postseason. After that, who knows? Hope for their sake that they don’t run into the Halos.
The Dodgers are definitively the team of the National League. However, Roy Halladay is looming, and many National League teams no doubt want him, at least the Phillies and the Cardinals. Whoever lands Halladay I think becomes the team of the National League. The Phillies and the Cardinals do not trail the Dodgers by that much and Halladay could put them over the top. If I am a Dodger fan, I am lying awake at night at the idea of the Phillies or Cardinals getting the ace. It could certainly spell disaster in a short series to have to face Halladay twice, especially if Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are right behind him. The Phillies perhaps need him the worst, who are so struggling with their starting rotation that they found Pedro Martinez in the Dominican Republic and paid him to pitch the rest of the season with them. I foresee disaster with the Martinez signing. I can’t see how a pitcher whose last few years with the Mets were mediocre at best can possibly offer the Phillies anything. Although Happ has emerged to carry part of that pitching staff, I don’t know if Moyer or Joe Blanton (if he’s still around) are going to be good enough for any team. I certainly hope Cole Hamels gets into shape. Fast.
Finally, Albert Pujols, the hitter of our generation is chasing what would the crowning jewel of his career and cement his legendary status. The Triple Crown. Last done by Carl Yastrzemski over 40 years ago, the Triple Crown reflects the ultimate in offensive dominance over a single season. So rare from an offensive perspective that the thought of it excites fans in the first half of the season, a triple crown is truly an amazing feat. Even the great hitters of all time fell short in one department or another. Too much power to hit for a great average, or not enough thump to carry the league lead in homeruns or RBI. I would love to see Pujols put that final feather in his cap, since he seems to have done almost everything conceivable already, even winning a World Series. I simply don’t think it’s going to happen. As much as everyone wants it to, I think he trails by too many points in the average. To make up twenty point of average over Hanley Ramirez in two months would be quite a feat. Is Pujols capable of it? I won’t put myself into the trap of saying that that man is not capable of something when it comes to hitting a baseball, but I think it is too much to expect it out of someone. Also, not getting pitched to late in the season will certainly damage his ability to drive in runs if Prince Fielder starts to threaten his lead. Another year perhaps. This year? I doubt it.
It has to be understood that we are not just chasing one team, we are chasing two. Chasing down the Angels may prove too difficult by itself but we also have the Rangers to contend with. I don’t believe the Rangers are in this for the long haul. The sad story for that franchise always seems to be the pitching, and I don’t see that changing this year. It has almost come to a point with the Rangers where they have to prove that pitching is not a problem for them by making the playoffs before they will get the benefit of the doubt. Even if we do only concern ourselves with the Angels, right now we are staring at a five and half game deficit in late July. If the Angels play at the percentage they are now and go 41-27 through the end of the season, the Mariners would have to win at about a .700 clip to have a chance at catching the Angels, which seems to be our only way into the playoffs since we are staring up at four teams in the Wild Card. As much as I love the way we are playing right now, objectively speaking one has to concede that it is a difficult task for any team to make up that kind of ground on a team as good as the Halos. They show no sign of letting up as they are injury ridden right now and still somehow playing their best baseball of the season. If we’re looking to mortgage our future (again, look at Adam Jones and Shin-Soo Choo) for a chance to win this year, it doesn’t seem likely. For teams like the Phillies and Dodgers, mortgaging prospects makes sense. For the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, White Sox, it makes sense. For us, right now as much as I hate to say it, we are too far out chasing down a team that is too good.
I don’t think I’m understating this when I say that the Angels have a revolutionary offense. With a good week, they could overtake the Yankees as the best offense in baseball. Yet, they are in the middle of the pack in homeruns and doubles. They lead the league in team batting and are second (behind the Rays) in stolen bases. Mike Scoscia and the Angels have redefined how to score without power in an age of offense. They get hits. They draw walks. They run, run, run. First to third. Straight steal. Hit and run. The Angels are aggressive and show all of baseball that speed causes problems. They will single a team to death, and they don’t need to string three hits in an inning together to score a run because of their speed and aggressiveness. This is a model for all teams around baseball. Because I don’t think the Mariners have a very good chance to catch the Angels even with a good bat (asking a team to win at a .700 clip is simply too much), I think the smart thing to do is sell to make sure we are getting something for our great arms. Jarrod Washburn is commanding the highest price he has ever commanded at this point. He is fantastic. I think it is smart to offload him first. I hope we can resign Bedard. Even though the media has mentioned several times how the Bedard trade has been terrible for Seattle (good point) it still has a chance to save itself. He just needs to get healthy. When he pitches, he is quality, even though he does not go as deep as we would like. I really believe that if Bedard gets healthy for a full season, he can be a devastating punch with Felix in the rotation. I hope we can hang on to Bedard, but only if we can resign him. It makes no sense to hang on to him for the rest of this year or next, because then we really have lost it all in the trade with the Orioles if he does not resign. I hate to say it because are playing so well right now and I hope we will continue to play well, but we have to look to sell if we want to win in a couple years, otherwise we could get caught in a never-ending cycle of losing seasons.
I would like to take a moment to speak about the All Star Game. I have always loved the ASG and I think the recent streak by the American League has made it even more fascinating. Yet still the debate looms about whether the ASG should determine home field advantage in the World Series. I think it is a good debate to have because it is a valid question. I understand why Bud Selig instituted the rule after the 2002 embarrassment (ties are for soccer, not baseball), but now that we are sufficiently removed from that I think everyone is clamoring to have us look at this critically. Is something as important as being able to open and close the World Series on your own soil to be decided by an “exhibition” game? While I do like it because it adds a little extra flare to the ASG, I agree that it is simply not appropriate. I would hope that the exhibition game would “mean something” to the players simply for the sake of its history. It’s the All Star Game, and there’s no guarantee of ever getting back to it. I think at this level of the game, every player as an innate desire to win every game, from spring training to the postseason, exhibition or non. I don’t think that the players themselves need that boost. I think it is a ratings plug. Which is fine. There’s nothing wrong with wanting more people to watch the game. But maybe throwing the World Series into the mix is too much. So it seems that the question that comes up is, how should home field advantage for the World Series be decided? Some say it should be the team with the best record. I think that’s fine. That essentially the way the NBA does it from what I understand, and it seems to work for them. Previously, we used to alternate years to determine which league had the advantage. Also fine. I think that anything which does not place the determining factor on the fates of a single day of baseball is alright. Head to head record in interleague play? Sure, I think that’s the most compelling of them all. The only problem with that being that you still have last place teams deciding the fate of contending teams, which some have a problem with. I don’t. I don’t lay awake at night thinking about the injustice of the ASG deciding home field advantage, but I do side with the majority in the idea that it should not decide home field advantage. Home field is too important.
The AL East is quite interesting in the way it is developing. Throughout this season, I have always picked the Yankees to come out of that division, simply because I think there are less question marks around their team and I think that their offense and starting pitching is better than the Sox who probably, no, definitely, have a bullpen advantage. Right on cue, the Yankees are surging and the Sox are falling. The Sox offense is steadily declining. Pedroia’s numbers are down. Their team OPS has fallen each month in the season as Peter Gammons repeatedly points out. The Sox are in a tailspin and the balance of power in the AL East has visibly changed in the past couple weeks. I expect this to continue. With Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira hitting in the middle of the lineup and Sabbathia, Burnett and Chamberlain in the rotation, it is simply too powerful. I expect the Yankees to return to the postseason. After that, who knows? Hope for their sake that they don’t run into the Halos.
The Dodgers are definitively the team of the National League. However, Roy Halladay is looming, and many National League teams no doubt want him, at least the Phillies and the Cardinals. Whoever lands Halladay I think becomes the team of the National League. The Phillies and the Cardinals do not trail the Dodgers by that much and Halladay could put them over the top. If I am a Dodger fan, I am lying awake at night at the idea of the Phillies or Cardinals getting the ace. It could certainly spell disaster in a short series to have to face Halladay twice, especially if Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are right behind him. The Phillies perhaps need him the worst, who are so struggling with their starting rotation that they found Pedro Martinez in the Dominican Republic and paid him to pitch the rest of the season with them. I foresee disaster with the Martinez signing. I can’t see how a pitcher whose last few years with the Mets were mediocre at best can possibly offer the Phillies anything. Although Happ has emerged to carry part of that pitching staff, I don’t know if Moyer or Joe Blanton (if he’s still around) are going to be good enough for any team. I certainly hope Cole Hamels gets into shape. Fast.
Finally, Albert Pujols, the hitter of our generation is chasing what would the crowning jewel of his career and cement his legendary status. The Triple Crown. Last done by Carl Yastrzemski over 40 years ago, the Triple Crown reflects the ultimate in offensive dominance over a single season. So rare from an offensive perspective that the thought of it excites fans in the first half of the season, a triple crown is truly an amazing feat. Even the great hitters of all time fell short in one department or another. Too much power to hit for a great average, or not enough thump to carry the league lead in homeruns or RBI. I would love to see Pujols put that final feather in his cap, since he seems to have done almost everything conceivable already, even winning a World Series. I simply don’t think it’s going to happen. As much as everyone wants it to, I think he trails by too many points in the average. To make up twenty point of average over Hanley Ramirez in two months would be quite a feat. Is Pujols capable of it? I won’t put myself into the trap of saying that that man is not capable of something when it comes to hitting a baseball, but I think it is too much to expect it out of someone. Also, not getting pitched to late in the season will certainly damage his ability to drive in runs if Prince Fielder starts to threaten his lead. Another year perhaps. This year? I doubt it.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
"They are who we thought they were"
The quote given by the coach of the Arizona Cardinals a few years ago has been memorialized in many different ways in the sports world, and now we seem to have found one more. After a month of good baseball, there was lingering suspicion of a team, as one of my friend's said, "playing over their heads." While I previously made a case as to why the Mariners' could potentially sustain a drive into the summer and be in contention for playoff baseball, the house made of cards has begun to crumble due to almost no offensive threat present in the lineup.
The question in Seattle seems to perpetually be "how are we going to score runs?" Ever since about 2002, I have identified this as the primary problem of the team and we have never been in a spot since that time where I could rest my head easily at night assured that the team will score enough to give the pitching a chance to win. Although poor offenses have especially plagued us in recent years, this team's performance is threatening to rank among the worst in our franchise history. The amount of games in which we are limited to three runs are less seems to be staggering and showing no signs of slowing. Adrian Beltre does not produce consistently enough to carry this team and has not showed in the past to be reliable. Even if he was, there is nothing around him. Endy Chavez essentially dropped off the table and the immaculate pitching performances our team was giving in April have come back down to earth in May.
Overall, the pitching remains the strength of the team, even with Morrow stuttering. I still believe in Morrow's stuff, unlike many in Seattle, and I think getting rid of him for having command issues at this point in his career could rank as one of the great mistakes of this franchise later on. Morrow still has time to develop a second pitch which is good enough to offset his fastball, and when his fastball is in the high 90s, that is all that is required.
Can we turn it around? Probably not. The Mariners will soon be labeled as "sellers" in the trade market, and for good reason. There is a strong potential for good trade packages with as many players on the block as we will have this season.
Build for the future. Think long-term.
The question in Seattle seems to perpetually be "how are we going to score runs?" Ever since about 2002, I have identified this as the primary problem of the team and we have never been in a spot since that time where I could rest my head easily at night assured that the team will score enough to give the pitching a chance to win. Although poor offenses have especially plagued us in recent years, this team's performance is threatening to rank among the worst in our franchise history. The amount of games in which we are limited to three runs are less seems to be staggering and showing no signs of slowing. Adrian Beltre does not produce consistently enough to carry this team and has not showed in the past to be reliable. Even if he was, there is nothing around him. Endy Chavez essentially dropped off the table and the immaculate pitching performances our team was giving in April have come back down to earth in May.
Overall, the pitching remains the strength of the team, even with Morrow stuttering. I still believe in Morrow's stuff, unlike many in Seattle, and I think getting rid of him for having command issues at this point in his career could rank as one of the great mistakes of this franchise later on. Morrow still has time to develop a second pitch which is good enough to offset his fastball, and when his fastball is in the high 90s, that is all that is required.
Can we turn it around? Probably not. The Mariners will soon be labeled as "sellers" in the trade market, and for good reason. There is a strong potential for good trade packages with as many players on the block as we will have this season.
Build for the future. Think long-term.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
All still well
Mariners
12-6, First place
Everything seems to be holding up well in Mariners land so far. The quick start the team is off to has not yet slowed down. In fact, after taking two of three against the Rays and the first two against the Halos, the M's are rolling along quite well. As I write this, we are down 2-0 in the top of the third against the Angels.
The predominant concern for our team this year still appears to be the offense. In the last two games the Mariners' have certainly scored enough to win. Currently, the Mariners are sitting at 17th in baseball in runs scored this year. If the Mariners hold in the middle of the pack in baseball in runs scored and avoid falling below 20th, I would think we may have enough pitching to win in a weak division. Remember, with the unbalanced schedule, roughly a third of our total games will be played against the other three teams in the AL West. Therefore, so much of our success this year will be determined on how well we play against Oakland, Texas and Los Angeles. If we can win two of three against those teams and play .500 against everyone else, we have an excellent chance of being in the mix at the end of the season. A win today against LA would already tie our total number of victories against the Angels all of last season.
The Mariners are in the bottom third of baseball in doubles, home runs, and, perhaps most concerning, walks drawn (dead last). It is no surprise that our team is not hitting with any power. However, a team can score runs without hitting for power if they are above average in other offensive categories. If we cannot drive in runs quickly with extra-base hits and home runs, the Mariners must be able to capitalize on free passes to first base and the speed to turn walks into doubles so that the hits they do get are able to drive in runs. The old cliche says that speed never goes into a slump. With the discipline to draw walks and the speed to run it does not take any offensive "talent" to cause chaos on the bases. Although the Mariners are in the top third of baseball in steals, we have also been caught stealing in a third of our attempts. However, statistics like that can be deceiving in a young season. More important is our willingness to be aggressive.
The Mariners have been doing a good job putting the ball in play. Currently, we are in the bottom third in baseball in strikeouts, which will be important in our overall offensive philosophy. Teams that hit for power can afford to strikeout. Teams that rely on speed and singles cannot.
We must remember not to get too high or too low early in the season. Players who are not hitting well right now will begin to hit better (Beltre, Griffey, Lopez, Gutierrez) while others who are over performing will come down to earth (Chavez). Let's wait and see. Some are of the opinion that the Mariners are playing over their heads right now. Perhaps. But it takes several weeks to really the feel for the true measure of a team.
Around MLB
So far I really cannot understand the Yankees. I picked them at the beginning of the season because I believed (still believe) that they have the best overall team in the East. The other popular pick is the Red Sox, however, I think the Yankees measure well enough offensively against the Red Sox, especially with the new addition of Teixeira to the middle of the lineup and with Alex Rodriguez still yet to play this season. Robinson Cano will probably have a comeback year and with Jeter at the top of the order and the steady hand of Jorge Posada, their lineup will have no trouble plating runs. The difference I think is in the starting pitching. The Yankees have the best four starters I have ever seen on a team at the same time, perhaps only rivaled by the short time that the Athletics had Hudson, Mulder, Zito, and Harden on the same team earlier this decade. Many are concerned about Wang and his 34.50 ERA so far this year, however his track record indicates that he will soon come back to form once he starts getting the right downward movement on his pitches that has helped him be one of the best ground ball pitchers in baseball. I am not worried about Wang's future. When Wang comes back to form, the prospect of having to play a four game set against Sabathia, Burnett, Chamberlain and Wang should be scary for even the most potent offense. I will grant that Chamberlain is still somewhat of a question considering he has not been nearly as dominant in the rotation as he was in the bullpen, but the potential is still there, and I believe it will be realized. His stuff is simply too good.
The Red Sox, however, I think have more questions about their rotation. Overall, Beckett has looked good this year (except his last start) and we'll see if the injury bug that has bitten him in the past can manage to stay away. Lester has struggled early and there could be a reason to be concerned about a sophomore jinx that Cole Hamels may be also encountering after their first full season in the league. Brad Penny has a good enough track record to give one an idea of what to expect with him, even though the change to a new city can bring about some unpredictability. Masterson has found his way into the rotation, but with less than 100 total innings in MLB so far, it is difficult to predict what he will do. I think there are less questions with the Yankees rotation, even though their bullpen is in early season shambles. If the Yankees can straighten out their bullpen, which I believe they will, then I give them the advantage with all other factors being equal (which, of course, they never are given how injuries can decimate a team). I still expect both teams to win 95 or more games, so I think it will be very, very close down to the end.
The Marlins are very interesting, having lost five in a row after their 11-1 start. I still don't know what to make of them, since I had not heard of any of their starters coming into the season, but I recognize the potential of their offense anchored by Hanley Ramirez. Initially, I picked the Phillies to win the NL East. However, the more I look at the Phillies rotation with a struggling Hamels, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer and Chan Ho Park, I am unconvinced that they have the pitching to hold off the Mets who seem to be much better in the rotations, roughly equal in the bullpen, and a little inferior on the offense end.
I firmly hold that the largest factor which determines success is the effectiveness of the starting pitching. If that is true, then the Yankees and Mets should have an advantage (although not a definitive one).
Let's see how it all plays out...
12-6, First place
Everything seems to be holding up well in Mariners land so far. The quick start the team is off to has not yet slowed down. In fact, after taking two of three against the Rays and the first two against the Halos, the M's are rolling along quite well. As I write this, we are down 2-0 in the top of the third against the Angels.
The predominant concern for our team this year still appears to be the offense. In the last two games the Mariners' have certainly scored enough to win. Currently, the Mariners are sitting at 17th in baseball in runs scored this year. If the Mariners hold in the middle of the pack in baseball in runs scored and avoid falling below 20th, I would think we may have enough pitching to win in a weak division. Remember, with the unbalanced schedule, roughly a third of our total games will be played against the other three teams in the AL West. Therefore, so much of our success this year will be determined on how well we play against Oakland, Texas and Los Angeles. If we can win two of three against those teams and play .500 against everyone else, we have an excellent chance of being in the mix at the end of the season. A win today against LA would already tie our total number of victories against the Angels all of last season.
The Mariners are in the bottom third of baseball in doubles, home runs, and, perhaps most concerning, walks drawn (dead last). It is no surprise that our team is not hitting with any power. However, a team can score runs without hitting for power if they are above average in other offensive categories. If we cannot drive in runs quickly with extra-base hits and home runs, the Mariners must be able to capitalize on free passes to first base and the speed to turn walks into doubles so that the hits they do get are able to drive in runs. The old cliche says that speed never goes into a slump. With the discipline to draw walks and the speed to run it does not take any offensive "talent" to cause chaos on the bases. Although the Mariners are in the top third of baseball in steals, we have also been caught stealing in a third of our attempts. However, statistics like that can be deceiving in a young season. More important is our willingness to be aggressive.
The Mariners have been doing a good job putting the ball in play. Currently, we are in the bottom third in baseball in strikeouts, which will be important in our overall offensive philosophy. Teams that hit for power can afford to strikeout. Teams that rely on speed and singles cannot.
We must remember not to get too high or too low early in the season. Players who are not hitting well right now will begin to hit better (Beltre, Griffey, Lopez, Gutierrez) while others who are over performing will come down to earth (Chavez). Let's wait and see. Some are of the opinion that the Mariners are playing over their heads right now. Perhaps. But it takes several weeks to really the feel for the true measure of a team.
Around MLB
So far I really cannot understand the Yankees. I picked them at the beginning of the season because I believed (still believe) that they have the best overall team in the East. The other popular pick is the Red Sox, however, I think the Yankees measure well enough offensively against the Red Sox, especially with the new addition of Teixeira to the middle of the lineup and with Alex Rodriguez still yet to play this season. Robinson Cano will probably have a comeback year and with Jeter at the top of the order and the steady hand of Jorge Posada, their lineup will have no trouble plating runs. The difference I think is in the starting pitching. The Yankees have the best four starters I have ever seen on a team at the same time, perhaps only rivaled by the short time that the Athletics had Hudson, Mulder, Zito, and Harden on the same team earlier this decade. Many are concerned about Wang and his 34.50 ERA so far this year, however his track record indicates that he will soon come back to form once he starts getting the right downward movement on his pitches that has helped him be one of the best ground ball pitchers in baseball. I am not worried about Wang's future. When Wang comes back to form, the prospect of having to play a four game set against Sabathia, Burnett, Chamberlain and Wang should be scary for even the most potent offense. I will grant that Chamberlain is still somewhat of a question considering he has not been nearly as dominant in the rotation as he was in the bullpen, but the potential is still there, and I believe it will be realized. His stuff is simply too good.
The Red Sox, however, I think have more questions about their rotation. Overall, Beckett has looked good this year (except his last start) and we'll see if the injury bug that has bitten him in the past can manage to stay away. Lester has struggled early and there could be a reason to be concerned about a sophomore jinx that Cole Hamels may be also encountering after their first full season in the league. Brad Penny has a good enough track record to give one an idea of what to expect with him, even though the change to a new city can bring about some unpredictability. Masterson has found his way into the rotation, but with less than 100 total innings in MLB so far, it is difficult to predict what he will do. I think there are less questions with the Yankees rotation, even though their bullpen is in early season shambles. If the Yankees can straighten out their bullpen, which I believe they will, then I give them the advantage with all other factors being equal (which, of course, they never are given how injuries can decimate a team). I still expect both teams to win 95 or more games, so I think it will be very, very close down to the end.
The Marlins are very interesting, having lost five in a row after their 11-1 start. I still don't know what to make of them, since I had not heard of any of their starters coming into the season, but I recognize the potential of their offense anchored by Hanley Ramirez. Initially, I picked the Phillies to win the NL East. However, the more I look at the Phillies rotation with a struggling Hamels, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer and Chan Ho Park, I am unconvinced that they have the pitching to hold off the Mets who seem to be much better in the rotations, roughly equal in the bullpen, and a little inferior on the offense end.
I firmly hold that the largest factor which determines success is the effectiveness of the starting pitching. If that is true, then the Yankees and Mets should have an advantage (although not a definitive one).
Let's see how it all plays out...
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
It has begun
Few things in life can rival the anticipation of a new baseball season. The reason is because everything is lying ahead of us, the great seasons, the great games, the great plays, poetic tragedy, the jubilance of victory and the agony of defeat. Every season is unique and beautiful in itself but also through the continuation of the great history of the game.
The Mariners (8-5)
Thirteen games into the season, few people could have expected a record better than 8-5. Even though the team has lost its last two games, it remains a promising start to the season. The offense has been scoring over five runs a game on average, and Bedard and Hernandez look as though they can finally pitch up to their expectations. Washburn has been outstanding thus far this season, and the Mariners have the best starting staff ERA in the game in the short season.
It's no secret that everyone with any baseball sense picked the Mariners to finish in the cellar in the American League West this year coming into the season. And while the great start to the season is reason enough to be joyous given the attention it has given the city around baseball, still the common opinion seems to be that the M's will inevitably fade back into their fourth place dwelling in our division.
Perhaps. However, I am willing to offer reasons to believe that the Mariners will be better than expected this season. The first is the great start that the pitching is off to this season. If Hernandez and Bedard give us the performances they are capable of, the 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation will prove to be an effective "stopper" of losing skids, a necessity of any contending team. It's true that the back end of the rotation could provide problems. however, Washburn and Silva have both provided great seasons for previous teams in the past, therefore we know that the capacity to pitch well is present, it just remains to be seen if it materializes into anything. Rowland-Smith and Jakubauskas are loaded with potential, but they are large question marks as to what we will get from them this year. The thing with new starting pitchers with little track records is that if they can exceed the minimal expectations, they can be an outstanding asset at the back of a rotation, even if only for a season such as Aaron Small a few years ago for the Yankees. Pitchers like Small have been known to crop up and have brilliant seasons or half-seasons, then fade like a great firework. Hope springs eternal, and the potential is certainly there.
No question loomed (looms) quite as large as the bullpen this year, with no left-handed pitcher in sight and only three recognizable names (Batista, Lowe, Morrow). Initially, I was disappointed in Morrow's decision to remain in the bullpen and be the closer because I thought he would be more valuable in the rotation and I thought Lowe showed the capacity to close games for us. However, having a pitcher like Morrow to nail down games can prove invaluable if he can only manage to keeps the walks down and the fastball (and strikeouts) up. Just like with the young pitchers such as Rowland-Smith, it is simply difficult to make a guess one way or the other as to how they will perform because of the lack of a track record. The default position seems to be to keep expectations low (perhaps with reason) but don't be surprised if newly emerging pitchers surprise and draw attention. The young season has already shown instances where that is happening in the Mariners' pen (Aardsma and Kelley).
The biggest element of the Mariners' game which concerned me going into this season is the offense. I have mentioned to many people before that there does not seem to be a prevalent offensive philosophy. There is no identifiable method or strength that the Mariners' will lean on in order to produce runs consistently. Offense is baseball is the biggest fluctuating factor on any team (whereas defense and pitching are much more stable and easier to expect) and with a team with so little identifiable "punch" the risk of falling into the offensive doldrums is frighteningly high. However, early on that does not seem to be much of an issue, though the series with the Tigers has certainly heightened my attention to it. Simply put, the question remains "who is going to score?" and "who will drive them in?" Chavez is exceeding expectations early on, and Gutierrez looks as though he could emerge this season. Although I am still expecting very little from Griffey, if Beltre and Ichiro can perform as they are capable and Betancort and Lopez develop on the right track (both can move closer to hitting .300 with emerging power), then perhaps this team will score more than people thought they would. Branyan may hit for some power, but if the previous free agents with some (any at all) power coming to Safeco field to hit for the first time is any indication of what Branyan will do this season, then it is not promising (Aurilia, Spezio, Beltre, Sexson, Vidro, the list goes on...). If this team expects to score runs, then it would be prudent to lean on an offensive philosophy that Mike Scioscia has enacted in Los Angeles, primarily to run (a lot), go first to third at every given opportunity and play fundamental baseball to perfection. The Angels have endured power outages in the past few seasons, yet still they score (enough). The Halos do it with pitching and a lights out bullpen also. However, they score, and so will the Mariners if they can draw walks (much more than last season), bunt runners over, hit with runners in scoring position, move first to third and bring runners on third in to score with less than two outs at a 70 percent or better rate. In order to do this, we need to be a contact hitting team that runs at every given moment and forces other teams into mistakes with untamed aggressiveness. In my mind, this is the only way the Mariners will score this year, since sitting back and waiting for the three-run home run simply will not work.
The offense may prove to be a problem all year (as it has been since about 2002), but it is a largely unknown factor. I will be paying special attention to identifying our on-base percentage, walks, steals and hitting with runners in scoring position in order to determine our effectiveness. I am concerned at our ability to score four or more runs a game to give our solid starting pitching a chance to win, but also I am concerned about the percentage of innings in which will be scoring (we put up runs in only about four innings in the Tiger series out of 26). An effective offense can score early to take pressure off of the pitching while also retaining the capacity to score in several inning throughout the game to build a lead rather than hoping to put up a crooked number in one (maybe two) innings in a game.
To summarize, in order to contend this year, everything needs to go right for the Mariners to win even in a weak division. However, after seeing what the Rays did last season, I now truly believe that any team is capable of winning in any given season. The starting pitching woes the Angels seem to be having early this season can only be good for the M's, who need to play the American League West much, much better this season than we have played them the last few seasons. Even though I have exhausted all the promise I can see with our team this year, we are essentially a house of cards. If one element of our team fails, the other parts are not strong enough by themselves to hold the failing element up for very long before we endure a catastrophically long losing streak just like at the end of the last two seasons.
But for now, we are 8-5, and in first place.
Go Mariners!
The Mariners (8-5)
Thirteen games into the season, few people could have expected a record better than 8-5. Even though the team has lost its last two games, it remains a promising start to the season. The offense has been scoring over five runs a game on average, and Bedard and Hernandez look as though they can finally pitch up to their expectations. Washburn has been outstanding thus far this season, and the Mariners have the best starting staff ERA in the game in the short season.
It's no secret that everyone with any baseball sense picked the Mariners to finish in the cellar in the American League West this year coming into the season. And while the great start to the season is reason enough to be joyous given the attention it has given the city around baseball, still the common opinion seems to be that the M's will inevitably fade back into their fourth place dwelling in our division.
Perhaps. However, I am willing to offer reasons to believe that the Mariners will be better than expected this season. The first is the great start that the pitching is off to this season. If Hernandez and Bedard give us the performances they are capable of, the 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation will prove to be an effective "stopper" of losing skids, a necessity of any contending team. It's true that the back end of the rotation could provide problems. however, Washburn and Silva have both provided great seasons for previous teams in the past, therefore we know that the capacity to pitch well is present, it just remains to be seen if it materializes into anything. Rowland-Smith and Jakubauskas are loaded with potential, but they are large question marks as to what we will get from them this year. The thing with new starting pitchers with little track records is that if they can exceed the minimal expectations, they can be an outstanding asset at the back of a rotation, even if only for a season such as Aaron Small a few years ago for the Yankees. Pitchers like Small have been known to crop up and have brilliant seasons or half-seasons, then fade like a great firework. Hope springs eternal, and the potential is certainly there.
No question loomed (looms) quite as large as the bullpen this year, with no left-handed pitcher in sight and only three recognizable names (Batista, Lowe, Morrow). Initially, I was disappointed in Morrow's decision to remain in the bullpen and be the closer because I thought he would be more valuable in the rotation and I thought Lowe showed the capacity to close games for us. However, having a pitcher like Morrow to nail down games can prove invaluable if he can only manage to keeps the walks down and the fastball (and strikeouts) up. Just like with the young pitchers such as Rowland-Smith, it is simply difficult to make a guess one way or the other as to how they will perform because of the lack of a track record. The default position seems to be to keep expectations low (perhaps with reason) but don't be surprised if newly emerging pitchers surprise and draw attention. The young season has already shown instances where that is happening in the Mariners' pen (Aardsma and Kelley).
The biggest element of the Mariners' game which concerned me going into this season is the offense. I have mentioned to many people before that there does not seem to be a prevalent offensive philosophy. There is no identifiable method or strength that the Mariners' will lean on in order to produce runs consistently. Offense is baseball is the biggest fluctuating factor on any team (whereas defense and pitching are much more stable and easier to expect) and with a team with so little identifiable "punch" the risk of falling into the offensive doldrums is frighteningly high. However, early on that does not seem to be much of an issue, though the series with the Tigers has certainly heightened my attention to it. Simply put, the question remains "who is going to score?" and "who will drive them in?" Chavez is exceeding expectations early on, and Gutierrez looks as though he could emerge this season. Although I am still expecting very little from Griffey, if Beltre and Ichiro can perform as they are capable and Betancort and Lopez develop on the right track (both can move closer to hitting .300 with emerging power), then perhaps this team will score more than people thought they would. Branyan may hit for some power, but if the previous free agents with some (any at all) power coming to Safeco field to hit for the first time is any indication of what Branyan will do this season, then it is not promising (Aurilia, Spezio, Beltre, Sexson, Vidro, the list goes on...). If this team expects to score runs, then it would be prudent to lean on an offensive philosophy that Mike Scioscia has enacted in Los Angeles, primarily to run (a lot), go first to third at every given opportunity and play fundamental baseball to perfection. The Angels have endured power outages in the past few seasons, yet still they score (enough). The Halos do it with pitching and a lights out bullpen also. However, they score, and so will the Mariners if they can draw walks (much more than last season), bunt runners over, hit with runners in scoring position, move first to third and bring runners on third in to score with less than two outs at a 70 percent or better rate. In order to do this, we need to be a contact hitting team that runs at every given moment and forces other teams into mistakes with untamed aggressiveness. In my mind, this is the only way the Mariners will score this year, since sitting back and waiting for the three-run home run simply will not work.
The offense may prove to be a problem all year (as it has been since about 2002), but it is a largely unknown factor. I will be paying special attention to identifying our on-base percentage, walks, steals and hitting with runners in scoring position in order to determine our effectiveness. I am concerned at our ability to score four or more runs a game to give our solid starting pitching a chance to win, but also I am concerned about the percentage of innings in which will be scoring (we put up runs in only about four innings in the Tiger series out of 26). An effective offense can score early to take pressure off of the pitching while also retaining the capacity to score in several inning throughout the game to build a lead rather than hoping to put up a crooked number in one (maybe two) innings in a game.
To summarize, in order to contend this year, everything needs to go right for the Mariners to win even in a weak division. However, after seeing what the Rays did last season, I now truly believe that any team is capable of winning in any given season. The starting pitching woes the Angels seem to be having early this season can only be good for the M's, who need to play the American League West much, much better this season than we have played them the last few seasons. Even though I have exhausted all the promise I can see with our team this year, we are essentially a house of cards. If one element of our team fails, the other parts are not strong enough by themselves to hold the failing element up for very long before we endure a catastrophically long losing streak just like at the end of the last two seasons.
But for now, we are 8-5, and in first place.
Go Mariners!
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