All still well

Mariners
12-6, First place

Everything seems to be holding up well in Mariners land so far. The quick start the team is off to has not yet slowed down. In fact, after taking two of three against the Rays and the first two against the Halos, the M's are rolling along quite well. As I write this, we are down 2-0 in the top of the third against the Angels.

The predominant concern for our team this year still appears to be the offense. In the last two games the Mariners' have certainly scored enough to win. Currently, the Mariners are sitting at 17th in baseball in runs scored this year. If the Mariners hold in the middle of the pack in baseball in runs scored and avoid falling below 20th, I would think we may have enough pitching to win in a weak division. Remember, with the unbalanced schedule, roughly a third of our total games will be played against the other three teams in the AL West. Therefore, so much of our success this year will be determined on how well we play against Oakland, Texas and Los Angeles. If we can win two of three against those teams and play .500 against everyone else, we have an excellent chance of being in the mix at the end of the season. A win today against LA would already tie our total number of victories against the Angels all of last season.

The Mariners are in the bottom third of baseball in doubles, home runs, and, perhaps most concerning, walks drawn (dead last). It is no surprise that our team is not hitting with any power. However, a team can score runs without hitting for power if they are above average in other offensive categories. If we cannot drive in runs quickly with extra-base hits and home runs, the Mariners must be able to capitalize on free passes to first base and the speed to turn walks into doubles so that the hits they do get are able to drive in runs. The old cliche says that speed never goes into a slump. With the discipline to draw walks and the speed to run it does not take any offensive "talent" to cause chaos on the bases. Although the Mariners are in the top third of baseball in steals, we have also been caught stealing in a third of our attempts. However, statistics like that can be deceiving in a young season. More important is our willingness to be aggressive.

The Mariners have been doing a good job putting the ball in play. Currently, we are in the bottom third in baseball in strikeouts, which will be important in our overall offensive philosophy. Teams that hit for power can afford to strikeout. Teams that rely on speed and singles cannot.

We must remember not to get too high or too low early in the season. Players who are not hitting well right now will begin to hit better (Beltre, Griffey, Lopez, Gutierrez) while others who are over performing will come down to earth (Chavez). Let's wait and see. Some are of the opinion that the Mariners are playing over their heads right now. Perhaps. But it takes several weeks to really the feel for the true measure of a team.



Around MLB

So far I really cannot understand the Yankees. I picked them at the beginning of the season because I believed (still believe) that they have the best overall team in the East. The other popular pick is the Red Sox, however, I think the Yankees measure well enough offensively against the Red Sox, especially with the new addition of Teixeira to the middle of the lineup and with Alex Rodriguez still yet to play this season. Robinson Cano will probably have a comeback year and with Jeter at the top of the order and the steady hand of Jorge Posada, their lineup will have no trouble plating runs. The difference I think is in the starting pitching. The Yankees have the best four starters I have ever seen on a team at the same time, perhaps only rivaled by the short time that the Athletics had Hudson, Mulder, Zito, and Harden on the same team earlier this decade. Many are concerned about Wang and his 34.50 ERA so far this year, however his track record indicates that he will soon come back to form once he starts getting the right downward movement on his pitches that has helped him be one of the best ground ball pitchers in baseball. I am not worried about Wang's future. When Wang comes back to form, the prospect of having to play a four game set against Sabathia, Burnett, Chamberlain and Wang should be scary for even the most potent offense. I will grant that Chamberlain is still somewhat of a question considering he has not been nearly as dominant in the rotation as he was in the bullpen, but the potential is still there, and I believe it will be realized. His stuff is simply too good.

The Red Sox, however, I think have more questions about their rotation. Overall, Beckett has looked good this year (except his last start) and we'll see if the injury bug that has bitten him in the past can manage to stay away. Lester has struggled early and there could be a reason to be concerned about a sophomore jinx that Cole Hamels may be also encountering after their first full season in the league. Brad Penny has a good enough track record to give one an idea of what to expect with him, even though the change to a new city can bring about some unpredictability. Masterson has found his way into the rotation, but with less than 100 total innings in MLB so far, it is difficult to predict what he will do. I think there are less questions with the Yankees rotation, even though their bullpen is in early season shambles. If the Yankees can straighten out their bullpen, which I believe they will, then I give them the advantage with all other factors being equal (which, of course, they never are given how injuries can decimate a team). I still expect both teams to win 95 or more games, so I think it will be very, very close down to the end.

The Marlins are very interesting, having lost five in a row after their 11-1 start. I still don't know what to make of them, since I had not heard of any of their starters coming into the season, but I recognize the potential of their offense anchored by Hanley Ramirez. Initially, I picked the Phillies to win the NL East. However, the more I look at the Phillies rotation with a struggling Hamels, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer and Chan Ho Park, I am unconvinced that they have the pitching to hold off the Mets who seem to be much better in the rotations, roughly equal in the bullpen, and a little inferior on the offense end.

I firmly hold that the largest factor which determines success is the effectiveness of the starting pitching. If that is true, then the Yankees and Mets should have an advantage (although not a definitive one).

Let's see how it all plays out...